“Peak oil states that any finite resource, (including oil) will have a beginning, middle and an end of production, and at some point it will reach a level of maximum output.” Another way of looking at peak oil is that it will occur when all the readily available, easy to find and relatively cheap oil runs out. All that will be left is the hard oil that is very expensive. Peak oil is a major issue facing the international community in the near to immediate future. Many industry experts argue that peak oil has already begun to occur in many of the oil rich countries of the world. Other experts argue that peak oil has not yet occurred but will occur within the next decade or two. The world currently uses a little more than 80 million barrels of oil a day and relies heavily on oil for use in daily life. Estimates suggest that the number of barrels of a oil a day that will need to be produced in order to meet consumer demands will exceed 100 million barrels within the next fifteen to twenty years.
There are numerous forces that drive the rise to peak oil. Market demand is probably the main reason peak oil is plaguing the international community especially with major consumer countries like China, the United States and India. The United States has only one-twentieth of the world’s population yet it consumes one-fourth of the world’s oil. “The US consumes six times the amount of oil per capita as the rest of the world.” As of 2007, China was using nearly 8 million barrels of oil a day. That is approximately 10% of world consumption. China’s “oil consumption grows by 7.5% per year [which is] seven times faster than the U.S.” However, market demand is only part of the equation. Natural disasters are a large contributing factor to the depletion of oil reserves as well. When cyclones, tornadoes, tsunamis and other natural disasters that are out of the hands of people occur this puts a strain on the world’s known oil reserves. Market uncertainty and economic imbalances as well as geopolitical turmoil also play a huge role in oil production. Even though Myanmar is not part of the Arab League (the region where most of the oil exists), they highlight an important lesson of what is happening in the realm of peak oil. In 2008 when a cyclone hit Myanmar, the world saw what happens when politics clashes with a country that is at grips with recovering from a devastating disaster. Myanmar has the 10th largest oil fields in the world. This has serious implications on the international community. Peak oil will come sooner and more drastically if the oil reserves of Mexico and Saudi Arabia, homes to two of the largest known oil fields in the world, are depleted. This is exemplified by oil rich countries like Myanmar who are politically and diplomatically isolated from the international community. This isolation not only makes it hard to ensure aid when natural disasters strike, but indirectly puts their oil fields at risk of being damaged or destroyed.
America has already experienced what it would feel like if peak oil occurred. During the 1970’s there were embargoes placed on oil to the United States due to the United States helping Israel during the Yom Kippur War. Saudi Arabia completely cut off oil to the United States after President Nixon announced support for Israel in 1973. With the oil embargo on the United States, consumers experienced long lines and higher prices at the gas stations as well as higher food prices. Furthermore, “posted prices changed hourly in some places as station owners took advantage of a panic situation” and “odd and even license plate numbers were used to assign gas-buying privileges on certain days of the week.” Not to mention that this was all occurring just as oil geologist, M. King Hubbert predicted that the United States would hit peak oil in the 1970’s. Following this incident with the oil embargo on the United States, The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) grew into a force to be reckoned with even though it was only the Arab states within in OPEC that enforced this embargo.
OPEC also plays a role in peak oil. OPEC is important to the Arab League because six of its twelve Member States are a part of OPEC. The economic factors behind the rising price of oil are largely due to market demand. Since there are very little options for alternative energy the price of oil is able to remain high and will continue to increase. However, this is only exacerbated by the fact that oil depletion is on the rise. There are industry experts who argue that peak oil is a tactic of OPEC to keep the price of oil high. If OPEC limits the number of barrels per day that is produced then it is basic supply-and-demand. However, throughout the 70’s and 80’s when OPEC cut production, consumers cut usage more than OPEC expected.
“Since peak oil output is not about the time at which oil will run out, but the time at which production can no longer be increased to cope with increased demand, it seems the only way the oil price can go is up.” “OPEC says it pumps a third of the world’s oil and controls 80 percent of reserves.” If peak oil has been reached OPEC Member States would be among the first to know of this. However, according to Chevron, "oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries." Even though there are over 40,000 oil fields across the globe, 94% of the “oil is concentrated in less than 1,500 fields.” Two of the top three oil fields in the world have already peaked. In 2005, the Kuwaiti oil field, Burgan, began depleting. In 2006, Cantarell Field in Mexico began to deplete at a rate of 13% a year. Saudi Aramco announced in 2006 admitted that some of their fields are declining as well. While it is not as bad as Mexico’s Cantarell Field at 13% a year, the Saudi oil fields are declining at 8% a year. This leads some industry experts to believe that the Ghawar Oil Field located in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia may already be depleted as well. As of April 2010, the Ghawar Oil Field was producing 6.5% of global oil daily. Cumulative production reached well over 65 billion barrels at the Ghawar Oil Field.
Obviously peak oil poses a major threat to the global economy; specifically the oil rich nations such as Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia’s number one export is oil. They rely so heavily on the revenue generated from exporting oil. In fact, in 2001 75% of government revenue and 90% of their export value came from oil production. If more oil fields in Saudi Arabia become depleted in addition to the Ghawar Oil Field, this will put a major strain not only on the Saudi economy but on the mobility of countries which import oil from Saudi Arabia. Without access to as much oil as the demand requires, millions of people will be immobile. Not only will the food and textile industries’ costs skyrocket, but so will many other industries will struggle as well. There will be a greater global economic crisis and maybe even a greater food crisis. The peak oil crisis that occurred in the 70’s and into the 80’s was not the real crisis since despite the oil production cuts, the world GDP (Gross Domestic Product) still grew at a rate of 13% over five years. The real crisis will be the one that the world will experience when peak oil finally happens again.
There are several ways in which the solution to peak oil has been discussed. First, the recovery rate needs to be increased as well as recovery techniques. “The industry is already improving technologies in areas like drilling and completion, production operations, and reservoir engineering, including enhanced oil recovery operations.” However, it is not enough to just improve the technologies. Rapidly increasing the recovery rates instantaneously will not necessarily be the answer either. It needs to be done at rapid yet incremental rates. Another way to prevent the rapid increase towards peak oil is to find alternative ways to reduce costs. If the price of production costs was cut it would open up more opportunities to search for more oil.
Countries like Saudi Arabia are looking to other sources of economic stimulation over the next few decades since oil can no longer be their main source to run their economy. King Abdullah has proposed economic industrial cities that will be built up all around Saudi Arabia. KAEC--King Abdullah Economic City is being built not too far from Jeddah; another one of these economic cities is being built near Medina; a third is being built outside of Riyadh. For the first time, foreign investors will be allowed to invest in these projects. They are a sense of modernity and the King's way of looking to alternate options other than oil. These economic cities are also meant as a source of job stimulation. Hopefully, these cities which will be more gender-friendly towards women shed a good light on the Saudi Kingdom and allow the other oil rich countries to look to Saudi Arabia as an example of how to move away from economic dependency on oil.
26.12.10
Army Vets
I just watched "This Week with Christiane Amanpour". This week's program was about army vets that are returning home from Iraq and Afghanistan. The vets are returning home to no job and no place to live.
I am utterly disgusted with the U.S. Government for not taking better care of the people who put their lives on the line for us to live safely and freely. These people should be treated like gold when they return. They shouldn't have to struggle to find somewhere to live or to find a job. We shouldn't hear reports of vets living on the streets homeless for months on end. I do not think we are doing enough to secure the easy transition of military personnel back to civilian life.
In my opinion, America is going through a repeat of Vietnam War. When the vets returned home from Vietnam they were met with similar circumstances. They couldn't find jobs; many were homeless. There are even lawsuits against the Department of Veteran Affairs because they are mistreating our veterans. Why should veterans have to wait for a disability claim approval before they can receive medical treatment? It is absurd. They should just be able to be treated the second they return home if they are experiencing any sort of problem. Furthermore, why are there backups in the claims leaving vets for years waiting for their approval? This is utterly despicable.
Many of the vets come back with post-traumatic stress disorder and other anxiety and stress issues; Many of them do not receive proper care for these issues and feel as though they cannot properly reintegrate into civilian society. There are reports that as much as 50% of the returning vets suffer from PTSD. When left untreated this disorder leads to other issues such as drug and alcohol abuse. These vets are not be allowed access to the mental health care that they need and deserve. Our government put these men and women into the middle of two of the most fierce wars on the planet; they were practically dehumanized and became robots simply carrying out a mission. Now when they return we can't help them readjust???? What is wrong with this picture?
Why can we help a homeless person who became homeless because they are a drug addict or an alcoholic but we can't seem to help a war vet who is suffering from PTSD and unable to cope with the readjustment process? In my opinion, our vets are the FIRST ones we should be giving the best medical care to; the best jobs; the best housing...why? Because they protect us; they protect our borders; they protect our freedom. God bless America and God bless our troops.
I am utterly disgusted with the U.S. Government for not taking better care of the people who put their lives on the line for us to live safely and freely. These people should be treated like gold when they return. They shouldn't have to struggle to find somewhere to live or to find a job. We shouldn't hear reports of vets living on the streets homeless for months on end. I do not think we are doing enough to secure the easy transition of military personnel back to civilian life.
In my opinion, America is going through a repeat of Vietnam War. When the vets returned home from Vietnam they were met with similar circumstances. They couldn't find jobs; many were homeless. There are even lawsuits against the Department of Veteran Affairs because they are mistreating our veterans. Why should veterans have to wait for a disability claim approval before they can receive medical treatment? It is absurd. They should just be able to be treated the second they return home if they are experiencing any sort of problem. Furthermore, why are there backups in the claims leaving vets for years waiting for their approval? This is utterly despicable.
Many of the vets come back with post-traumatic stress disorder and other anxiety and stress issues; Many of them do not receive proper care for these issues and feel as though they cannot properly reintegrate into civilian society. There are reports that as much as 50% of the returning vets suffer from PTSD. When left untreated this disorder leads to other issues such as drug and alcohol abuse. These vets are not be allowed access to the mental health care that they need and deserve. Our government put these men and women into the middle of two of the most fierce wars on the planet; they were practically dehumanized and became robots simply carrying out a mission. Now when they return we can't help them readjust???? What is wrong with this picture?
Why can we help a homeless person who became homeless because they are a drug addict or an alcoholic but we can't seem to help a war vet who is suffering from PTSD and unable to cope with the readjustment process? In my opinion, our vets are the FIRST ones we should be giving the best medical care to; the best jobs; the best housing...why? Because they protect us; they protect our borders; they protect our freedom. God bless America and God bless our troops.
25.12.10
Wikileaks controversy
A man by the name of Julian Assange leaked top secret classified documents to the public. Many argue that this is the best thing to happen to the public because they are now informed of what is going on in dozens upon dozens of countries in the world. However, how can the leak of such classified information be good for our public safety? In my opinion this a HUGE risk to our national security. I think it is great that wikileaks is making governments more accountable for their actions. However, this is not the way to do it. Time Magazine dubbed Wikileaks as something that "could be as important a journalistic tool as the Freedom of Information Act." While that may be true I am still a skeptic. I really do not see how leaking all this information is going to help diplomatic relations with countries.
Many are calling Julian Assange a hero for exposing U.S. Diplomatic cables to the public. However, for me I believe he should be charged with a crime. I do not think he should just get away with this. I believe our government needs to be more accountable for their actions but I do not think this is the way to do it. Maybe if someone has a persuading argument, I'd feel otherwise about this but for now I really think this was an extremely wrong move on Assange's part.
The Wikileaks contain classified documents from the war in Iraq. There are over 390,000 documents on the war in Iraq. Everything from friendly fire to non-combat actions to counter-insurgency. I do not understand, honestly, why the government would have reports such as these. Even though I think its a threat to security, I also feel like the government should not have documented reports of what is going on in the middle of a war zone. The Wikileaks video, Collatoral Murder, is actually interesting...it exposes the truth about what happens in Iraq. The video shows how civilians were killed even though reports show that no civilians were killed. The entire 17 minutes of footage is them searching out people and shooting them down. Army personnel eventually arrived on the scene and said they didn't want to drive the tanks through because there were too many bodies on the ground. THAT IS APPALLING!! Totally Sad. The worse part is they found two children wounded and the military ordered them to be handed to Iraqi police and be taken to an Iraqi hospital rather than the U.S. base nearby where they could have received better treatment. I am all about supporting our troops. DO NOT misunderstand me when I say that it is absolutely appalling that our military did that. This is one of the reasons I am saying that Wikileaks is a bad idea. We should not know the inner secrets of what is going on on the ground in Iraq. It is going to undermine the efforts of our troops and is essentially putting them in more danger than they already are.
The war in Iraq was not the only thing exposed. The war in Afghanistan has been exposed as well. Furthermore, thousands of U.S. cables were leaked from nearly every country on the damn planet. What I want to know is how on earth Assange got a hold of so many of these documents and cables. Everything from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict to Iranian nuclear programs to enriched uranium sales to Russia to underground parties in Saudi Arabia is exposed in these cables.
Ugh. Julian Assange, I do not like what you have done! I think the U.S. government in particular needs to be more responsible and accountable for their actions but I do not think it is up to this man to be the one to expose this information. In this age of technology, nothing is a secret. How can a government protect their boarders and their interests if any war document or cable to another country's government is going to be exposed?
Many are calling Julian Assange a hero for exposing U.S. Diplomatic cables to the public. However, for me I believe he should be charged with a crime. I do not think he should just get away with this. I believe our government needs to be more accountable for their actions but I do not think this is the way to do it. Maybe if someone has a persuading argument, I'd feel otherwise about this but for now I really think this was an extremely wrong move on Assange's part.
The Wikileaks contain classified documents from the war in Iraq. There are over 390,000 documents on the war in Iraq. Everything from friendly fire to non-combat actions to counter-insurgency. I do not understand, honestly, why the government would have reports such as these. Even though I think its a threat to security, I also feel like the government should not have documented reports of what is going on in the middle of a war zone. The Wikileaks video, Collatoral Murder, is actually interesting...it exposes the truth about what happens in Iraq. The video shows how civilians were killed even though reports show that no civilians were killed. The entire 17 minutes of footage is them searching out people and shooting them down. Army personnel eventually arrived on the scene and said they didn't want to drive the tanks through because there were too many bodies on the ground. THAT IS APPALLING!! Totally Sad. The worse part is they found two children wounded and the military ordered them to be handed to Iraqi police and be taken to an Iraqi hospital rather than the U.S. base nearby where they could have received better treatment. I am all about supporting our troops. DO NOT misunderstand me when I say that it is absolutely appalling that our military did that. This is one of the reasons I am saying that Wikileaks is a bad idea. We should not know the inner secrets of what is going on on the ground in Iraq. It is going to undermine the efforts of our troops and is essentially putting them in more danger than they already are.
The war in Iraq was not the only thing exposed. The war in Afghanistan has been exposed as well. Furthermore, thousands of U.S. cables were leaked from nearly every country on the damn planet. What I want to know is how on earth Assange got a hold of so many of these documents and cables. Everything from the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict to Iranian nuclear programs to enriched uranium sales to Russia to underground parties in Saudi Arabia is exposed in these cables.
Ugh. Julian Assange, I do not like what you have done! I think the U.S. government in particular needs to be more responsible and accountable for their actions but I do not think it is up to this man to be the one to expose this information. In this age of technology, nothing is a secret. How can a government protect their boarders and their interests if any war document or cable to another country's government is going to be exposed?
24.12.10
Christmas 2010
Some of my favorite Christmas traditions:
1) baking! I love to bake cookies. oatmeal and chocolate chip are my specialty.
2) Last minute frantic shopping with my mother. It is hilarious to see all those people (including us)running around like chickens without heads.
3) wrapping gifts at 3 a.m. with my mom and writing code names on all the gift tags so on Christmas morning no one has a clue who they are for or who they are from.
4) wrapping gifts in such an odd fashion that no one knows what to think of my wrapping skills or how to open the gift for that matter.
5) being one of the few people to say Merry Christmas and not happy holidays when I am thanking the salesperson for ringing me up.
6) never actually opening gifts on Christmas Day because we are over my aunt's house.
7) laughing when I see my father's expression over how the house has morphed into Santa's workshop.
8) picking out Gupta (our tree)...which I didn't get to do this year =(
9) writing 5 drafts of christmas lists because my mother always loses them.
10) being with family.
Every year that passes around this time I loose a little bit more of my childhood (which is really sad) but I gain a greater sense of what life is about and the true meaning of Christmas.
Today I am sitting home (well not really sitting) and I am baking, cleaning, wrapping presents and listening to Christmas music. In just a few short hours I will be going to my aunt's house with my mom and sister to spend the holiday with my mom's family. It is going to be looooouuuuuddd but I think it is safe to say it will be a good time because I know my Grandma will be happy. It is such an amazing thing to see my grandma smile. She has a smile that is exuberant and just lights up the whole room. Every holiday get together is always special when she is around. My grandma at 84 is still being that charming woman I remember when I was just a little girl; cracking jokes and making people laugh is her specialty. God bless her.
This Christmas I do not care about what new Coach wristlet I get or what new gadget my mom buys me. All I want more than anything is for my family's health to be top notch. I want all the bickering and yelling and silly arguments that at the end of the day don't really matter to stop. I have realized something over the past year and that is how utterly blessed my family is. I realize that while I am shallow and vain and love materialistic things, I am also very lucky to have such a wonderful family. What would Christmas be without them?
So I say bring on the eggnog and the cookies and the loudness and lets get this party started. Lets end 2010 with a bang!!!
Merry Christmas!!
1) baking! I love to bake cookies. oatmeal and chocolate chip are my specialty.
2) Last minute frantic shopping with my mother. It is hilarious to see all those people (including us)running around like chickens without heads.
3) wrapping gifts at 3 a.m. with my mom and writing code names on all the gift tags so on Christmas morning no one has a clue who they are for or who they are from.
4) wrapping gifts in such an odd fashion that no one knows what to think of my wrapping skills or how to open the gift for that matter.
5) being one of the few people to say Merry Christmas and not happy holidays when I am thanking the salesperson for ringing me up.
6) never actually opening gifts on Christmas Day because we are over my aunt's house.
7) laughing when I see my father's expression over how the house has morphed into Santa's workshop.
8) picking out Gupta (our tree)...which I didn't get to do this year =(
9) writing 5 drafts of christmas lists because my mother always loses them.
10) being with family.
Every year that passes around this time I loose a little bit more of my childhood (which is really sad) but I gain a greater sense of what life is about and the true meaning of Christmas.
Today I am sitting home (well not really sitting) and I am baking, cleaning, wrapping presents and listening to Christmas music. In just a few short hours I will be going to my aunt's house with my mom and sister to spend the holiday with my mom's family. It is going to be looooouuuuuddd but I think it is safe to say it will be a good time because I know my Grandma will be happy. It is such an amazing thing to see my grandma smile. She has a smile that is exuberant and just lights up the whole room. Every holiday get together is always special when she is around. My grandma at 84 is still being that charming woman I remember when I was just a little girl; cracking jokes and making people laugh is her specialty. God bless her.
This Christmas I do not care about what new Coach wristlet I get or what new gadget my mom buys me. All I want more than anything is for my family's health to be top notch. I want all the bickering and yelling and silly arguments that at the end of the day don't really matter to stop. I have realized something over the past year and that is how utterly blessed my family is. I realize that while I am shallow and vain and love materialistic things, I am also very lucky to have such a wonderful family. What would Christmas be without them?
So I say bring on the eggnog and the cookies and the loudness and lets get this party started. Lets end 2010 with a bang!!!
Merry Christmas!!
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